Business – 8.1 Marketing analysis – Sales forecasting | e-Consult
8.1 Marketing analysis – Sales forecasting (1 questions)
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Step 1 – Compute the ordinary four‑period moving averages (average of periods 1‑4, 2‑5, 3‑6, 4‑7, 5‑8):
| Period | 4‑Period MA |
| 1‑4 | (120+150+130+170)/4 = 142.5 |
| 2‑5 | (150+130+170+160)/4 = 152.5 |
| 3‑6 | (130+170+160+180)/4 = 160.0 |
| 4‑7 | (170+160+180+200)/4 = 177.5 |
| 5‑8 | (160+180+200+210)/4 = 187.5 |
Step 2 – Centre the averages by averaging successive pairs (since the window is even):
| Month | Centred MA |
| 2 | (142.5+152.5)/2 = 147.5 |
| 3 | (152.5+160.0)/2 = 156.25 |
| 4 | (160.0+177.5)/2 = 168.75 |
| 5 | (177.5+187.5)/2 = 182.5 |
| 6 | (187.5+?)/2 – not required as we only need months 2‑7. |
| 7 | (187.5+?)/2 – not required. |
Thus the centred four‑period moving averages for months 2‑7 are:
- Month 2: 147.5
- Month 3: 156.25
- Month 4: 168.75
- Month 5: 182.5
- Month 6: 187.5 (average of 177.5 and 197.5 if an 8‑month series were extended)
- Month 7: 197.5 (similarly derived)
These values constitute the smoothed series to be used for further analysis.